Before you commit, see what happens
Gain decision-grade clarity in high-stakes growth choices
Before capital is committed
Confidential. Senior led. 20 minutes.
The Constraint
Most consequential decisions cannot be safely tested
Markets move
Confidentiality leaks
Momentum stalls
Yet organisations commit anyway
The Cost
Capital is deployed
Resources is mobilised
Reputation exposed
Reversal becomes expensive
The Alternative
Simulate how customers, stakeholders and markets respond
Before you commit
Not forecasts
Not assumptions
Structured population response modelling Interpreted by senior growth experts
See what drives adoption
And where strategies fail
“AI’s true power… guiding strategic decisions”
“Unlocking new revenue streams and competitive advantage”
AI’s true power... guiding strategic decisions and unlocking new revenue streams.
— The Economist | Forbes
DecideGuide
Decide Guide reveals likely customers response - before commitment
Decision-grade clarity for high-stakes growth choices
Decide with Clarity.
Commit with Confidence.
Growth Decision Intelligence Partner
Why Simulate
Many consequential decisions cannot be safely tested
Yet they must still be made
Markets move before you know
Confidentiality leaks
Momentum stalls
Sometimes, even high-stakes decisions rely on weak evidence:
Partial data
Small samples and qualitative insight
Retrospective analysis
Internal consensus
Simulation explores how your customers may behave, under different assumptions and scenarios
Simulation becomes necessary when:
Decisions are made by committees
Real-world testing is impractical
Behaviour must be understood in novel conditions
Interdependencies and multiple stakeholders shape outcomes
Decisions
DecideGuide helps leaders make growth decisions where revenue depends on how customers behave
Not how you hope they will
Most growth strategies fail not because the idea is wrong, but because customer response was assumed
These are decisions where resources are mobilised and reputations are on the line
Because growth depends on customer value. And revenue follows behaviour.
If this reflects the decisions you’re facing:
Confidential. Senior led. 20 minutes.
Approach
DecideGuide applies structured simulation, directed by growth experts, to make assumptions and implications visible
So you can see what happens before you commit
1. Define the decision and its assumptions
What is being chosen, which assumptions must be tested
2. Model the relevant population
Customers, buyers and stakeholders. Including different roles and motivation in decision committees
3. Compare strategic options
Across markets, propositions, pricing, channels and competitive context
Simulating how decisions play out across a population
See how behaviour emerges — and which strategies win, and why
Simulating how decisions play out across a population
4. Simulate behaviour at scale
Predicted behaviour using explicit drivers of value, adoption and resistance
5. Extract decision-grade clarity
Clearer trade-offs. Visible risk.
More confident decisions
Not opinion gathering
Not small-sample research
Not a past-based forecast
Structured modelling of customer
behaviours with explicit assumptions and
actionable outputs
Backed by senior growth experts
Simulation doesn’t remove uncertainty.
It makes it visible.
Expertise
Simulation provides structure.
Judgement determines significance.
Every engagement combines large-scale population modelling with senior advisors who have shaped growth at global level for decades
This is not analysis alone
It is decision interpretation
Derek Turner-Smith - Director of Growth Outcomes
35 + years advising global leaders on corporate growth strategy (WPP)
Design and orchestration of multi-year, multi-market growth programmes
Post-M&A integration and transformation, aligning brand and growth path
Advised 3 organisations entering the world’s Top 100 most valuable brands during engagement
Focus: The strategic end-state, from vision to growth path
Simon Law - Strategic Effectiveness Director
Simon Law -
Strategic Effectiveness Director
Design of growth strategies delivering measurable market share gains at global scale
Category entry and expansion strategies across new markets and segments (WPP. Effie UK Council Member)
Innovation and new-market development, including Silicon Valley experience
Building new businesses and service lines to drive customer and segment growth
Focus: Customer insight and evidence-led interrogation
How leaders use DecideGuide to make and defend high-stakes decisions
Expert judgement, simulated evidence, and decision-ready outputs
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Engagements
Structured around the decision you need to make — and the scale of uncertainty involved
Strategic Viability
Should we progress at all?
Test a defined initiative or idea
Strategic Option
Which option is strongest?
Choose between competing strategies
Strategic Direction
Which future should we commit to?
Decide between distinct strategic scenarios
From defined initiatives to strategic futures
Strategic Viability
Population simulation of the target audience
Quantified adoption likelihood, value and differentiation
Senior interpretation of strengths, fragilities and conditions for success
Deliverable: Decision brief — proceed, refine or stop
Typically: 1–2 weeks | $50K–$85K
Strategic Option
Comparative simulation (up to three strategies)
Quantified trade-offs in appeal, adoption and value
Senior expert synthesis of risk, implications and strategic fit
Deliverable: Decision brief - which option wins and why
Typically: 3-4 weeks | $120K - $200K
Strategic Direction
Multiple populations and
strategic scenarios
Comparative analysis of growth potential, risk and coherence
Senior interpretation of scale and long-term revenue logic
Deliverable: Decision brief — best future to commit to
Typically: 6–12 weeks | $225 - $450K+
Strategic Viability
“Should we progress at all?”
For new ideas or initiatives targeting a defined population.
Population simulation of the
target audience
Quantified adoption likelihood,
value and differentiation
Senior interpretation of strengths
fragilities and conditions for
success
Deliverable: Decision brief for senior leadership - proceed, refine or stop
Typically: 1–2 weeks | $50K–$85K
Strategic Choice
Which Option is most defensible?
For selecting between competing routes to the same market.
Comparative simulation (up to three strategies)
Quantified trade-offs in appeal,
adoption and value
Senior expert synthesis of risk,
implications and strategic fit
Deliverable: Decision brief for senior leadership – the strongest path
Typically: 3-4 weeks | $120K - $200K
Strategic Direction
“Which future should we commit to?”
For major decisions about distinct scenarios across customers, markets,
categories or propositions.
Multiple populations and
strategic scenarios
Comparative analysis of growth
potential, risk and coherence
Senior interpretation of scale and
long-term revenue logic
Deliverable: Decision brief for senior leadership – the future to commit to
Typically: 6–12 weeks | $225K- $450K+
What you get
A decision brief for senior leadership
Evidence — quantified customer and
market response
Meaning — what drives outcomes
and where risk sits
Decision guidance — what to do, and
under what conditions
For decisions where real-world validation isn’t possible - evidence, meaning and decision guidance
For decisions where real-world
validation is difficult or impossible
Confidential. Senior led. 20 minutes.
Questions Strategic Leaders Ask
Important decisions require confidence in the method — not just the outcome
Typically: A clear description of the decision, the strategic options under consideration, and the assumptions behind them.
Sensitive operational data is rarely required.
All engagements are conducted under strict confidentiality in controlled environments.
Populations are built to reflect the relevant market, with varied motivations, incentives, risk tolerances and decision dynamics.
This creates heterogeneous populations that allow choices and behaviour to be explored at scale rather than through small samples.
Traditional research describes what people say or have done. Forecasts extrapolate from the past. Synthetic personas are useful for ideation, but not evidence.
DecideGuide simulates thousands of individual decision-makers with explicit drivers and variance.
One persona is a story.
Thousands of simulated decision-makers becomes evidence.
Simulation does not remove uncertainty. It makes it visible.
Outputs show likely ranges of adoption, value and response, highlighting where confidence is strong and where assumptions matter most.
A decision brief for senior leadership:
Evidence — quantified customer and market response
Meaning — what drives outcomes and where risk sits
Decision guidance — what to do, and under what conditions
Designed for immediate use
The model uses explicit drivers, structured populations and transparent assumptions.
Sensitivities are visible and testable.
Independent controlled testing has shown no statistically significant difference between simulated and real respondent answers.
Designed to support confident, defensible decisions
Confidential. Senior led. 20 minutes.
Decision Briefing
A focussed 20 minute virtual executive discussion
A focussed 20-minute executive discussion to assess:
The decision you’re navigating
Where uncertainty sits - and what matters
Whether simulation will materially improve decision clarity and evidence
No preparation required
Bring one decision
Leave with clarity
Confidential. Senior led. 20 minutes.
Book a Decision Briefing
Request a decision briefing
A short, focused discussion about your decision and whether simulation adds advantage
A short, focused discussion about your decision
Confidential and exploratory
Led by senior advisors
No preparation required
Typically used for high-stakes growth decisions where real-world validation isn’t possible
Confidential. Senior-led. 20 minutes. No preparation required.
Bring one decision you’re working through
